Building Momentum: short-term wins, the J-curve, and the Big Mo

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Vocabulary · 10

The J-curve of change: The published shape of significant change efforts across the management research: performance drops before it rises. The drop comes from learning costs, role disruption, and the temporary loss of efficiency the old way had through practice. The rise comes from the new way's higher ceiling, once mastered. The published claim: the leader who isn't expecting the dip misreads it as proof the change isn't working and abandons it; the leader who's expecting it rides it through to the gain. The J-curve is named for its shape on a performance-over-time graph.
Short-term wins (Kotter's published criteria): Kotter's published requirements for a win that actually builds momentum: it must be (1) visible — large numbers of people can see for themselves whether it's real; (2) unambiguous — there's little room to dispute whether it happened; (3) clearly related to the change effort — the win came because of the change, not despite it. The published failure: wins that fail any of the three criteria don't build momentum; they're decoration. The Lodge application: "three newer brothers presented at last month's lecture, which never happened under the old format" is a win; "morale seems better" is not.
The flywheel concept (Collins): Jim Collins's published metaphor from Good to Great (2001): organizational change is like pushing a heavy flywheel. The first turn takes enormous effort and produces little visible motion. The second turn is slightly easier. By the hundredth turn, the wheel is moving on its own momentum. The published claim: there is no single dramatic push that gets the flywheel moving; it's the accumulated effect of disciplined, consistent turns in the same direction. Most leaders look for the dramatic push ("the launch event") and miss the actual mechanism (the consistent turns).
The doom loop (Collins's opposite of the flywheel): Collins's published failure pattern: organizations that fail to build momentum often launch a new direction, lose patience when the flywheel doesn't immediately spin, change direction, get tired of the new direction before it builds momentum, change again. Each change resets the flywheel; the cumulative effort produces nothing. The Lodge equivalent: a new program every year, none of them given enough time to compound. The fix: pick a direction that matters, push the wheel consistently for at least eighteen to thirty-six months before evaluating.
Bright spots as wins (Heath): Chip and Dan Heath's published refinement of Kotter's short-term wins: the easiest wins to produce are bright spots that already exist but aren't yet recognized. The published move: identify cases where the desired outcome is already happening, even partially, and amplify them publicly. The bright spot becomes the short-term win without requiring new effort to manufacture it. The discipline is noticing what's there, not building what isn't.
Busyness vs. momentum: The published distinction across the change and productivity literature: busyness is activity; momentum is activity that compounds. Busyness feels like progress (full calendars, many meetings, much email) but the change goal hasn't actually advanced. Momentum may look slower from the outside (fewer meetings, more focus on the one or two priorities) but each unit of effort moves the change forward. Maxwell's Law 17 (Priorities) is the working test: activity is not necessarily accomplishment. The leader's job is to keep the change effort in the momentum lane.
Law of the Big Mo (Maxwell, Law 16): Maxwell's published sixteenth Irrefutable Law: "Momentum is a leader's best friend." The published claim: leaders create momentum, riders profit from it, and critics suffer from it. When the change has momentum, problems get solved more easily, opportunities multiply, and weaknesses become tolerable. When it doesn't, every small problem becomes a referendum on the leader's competence. The leader's job is to recognize when momentum is present and protect it; when it's absent, to manufacture the first push deliberately.
Law of Priorities (Maxwell, Law 17): Maxwell's published seventeenth Irrefutable Law: "Leaders understand that activity is not necessarily accomplishment." The published working frame: the 80/20 rule applied to leadership — 20% of the work produces 80% of the result; the leader's job is to identify which 20% and put it first. Applied to change leadership: many initiatives are activity (they fill the calendar); few are accomplishment (they move the flywheel). The discipline is to do less, focused on the right less.
The 80/20 priorities pass: The working practice that operationalizes Law 17: at the start of any change effort, list everything the coalition could do. Then identify the 20% of items that would produce 80% of the change. Drop or defer the other 80% of activity. The published research is unambiguous: change efforts fail more often from doing too many things partially than from doing too few things well. Less, focused, is the move.
Month-four reckoning: The published failure pattern observed across change efforts: month four (roughly four months from launch) is where most efforts die. By then the initial enthusiasm has faded, the J-curve dip is visible, the gain hasn't yet materialized, and the leader has run out of motivational energy. The published practice: anticipate month four explicitly. Plan a deliberate momentum push at month three to head off the dip; plan a visible win for month four to convert the dip into a turning point.

Sequences · 4

Designing momentum into a change effort from the start

Use this sequence when launching a significant change. The work to build momentum belongs in the launch plan, not as an afterthought when energy fades.

Map the expected J-curve. When does the dip start (typically month one to three)? When does the recovery begin (typically month four to nine)? When does the new way produce sustainable gains (typically month nine to eighteen)? Knowing the shape prevents panic at the dip.
Identify two or three short-term wins for the first six months, each passing Kotter's criteria (visible, unambiguous, clearly related). Schedule them on the calendar with the work that produces them, not just the announcement.
Apply the 80/20 priorities pass. List everything the coalition could do; circle the 20% that produces 80% of the change; drop or defer the other 80% explicitly. The discipline is doing less, focused on the right less.
Plan the month-three push. What deliberate action, scheduled three months out, will rebuild momentum before the dip can erode it? Not a meeting; a concrete delivery.
Plan the month-four win. What visible, unambiguous outcome will land in month four, converting the dip into a turning point? This is the keystone win.

Reading the flywheel — when to push, when to wait

Collins's published metaphor turns into a practical reading. Use this sequence to diagnose where your change effort is on the flywheel and what to do next.

Turns 1-10 (months 0-3): all effort, little visible motion. The work feels harder than it should. This is normal. Don't change direction; keep pushing the same wheel.
Turns 10-30 (months 3-6): the wheel starts to move. The dip is visible; gain hasn't arrived. This is the doom-loop temptation. Don't switch direction; protect the priorities and keep turning.
Turns 30-60 (months 6-12): the wheel has noticeable momentum. Small wins start arriving without requiring heroic effort. This is the moment to add a second priority, carefully — never a third.
Turns 60+ (months 12-24): the wheel moves on its own momentum. The leader's job shifts from pushing to protecting — keeping the priority list clean, blocking distractions, and using the momentum for the next harder change.
At any turn: ask "are we still pushing the same wheel, or did we switch wheels?" If you switched wheels, you're in the doom loop. Switch back, or commit to the new wheel for the full eighteen-to-thirty-six months.

Generating a short-term win that actually counts

Use this sequence when you need a short-term win and the obvious candidates don't pass Kotter's criteria. Most wins that fail to build momentum failed one of the three tests.

List candidate wins for the next sixty days. Brainstorm widely; evaluate after.
Apply the visibility test. Can large numbers of brothers see this for themselves, or does it require explanation? If it requires explanation, it's not visible enough.
Apply the unambiguity test. Could a reasonable brother look at this and say "I'm not sure that's actually a win"? If yes, narrow it until the answer is "clearly a win."
Apply the relatedness test. Is this clearly because of the change effort, or could it have happened anyway? If "could have happened anyway," find one that's clearly attributable to the change.
Pick one win that passes all three tests. Plan the work to deliver it. Schedule the announcement. Make the win visible.

Auditing busyness vs. momentum on your current change

Use this audit monthly while a change effort is underway. The activity-vs-accomplishment distinction is easy to lose track of without a deliberate check.

List everything the coalition did this month. Be honest; don't omit the things that felt productive but produced little.
For each item, ask: did this move the flywheel? Honestly. "We had a great meeting" is not flywheel motion; "we launched the new mentoring intake form and three brothers signed up" is.
Calculate the ratio. What percentage of the month's effort produced flywheel motion? If it's below 50%, you're in busyness mode, not momentum mode.
Identify the busyness. What activities are consuming time without producing flywheel motion? Most are meetings that could be emails, status reports nobody reads, or work that should have been deferred or dropped.
Cut the busyness. Reclaim the time for activity that produces flywheel motion. The discipline isn't doing more; it's doing less of the wrong thing.

Practice questions · 10

What's the J-curve of change, and why does it matter?
- a. A type of bell curve
- b. Performance drops before it rises in significant change; learning costs and lost efficiency produce the dip, the new way's higher ceiling produces the rise — the leader who isn't expecting the dip misreads it as failure ✓
- c. A scoring system for change efforts
- d. A musical scale
What are Kotter's published three criteria for a short-term win that actually builds momentum?
- a. Quick, cheap, easy
- b. Visible (many can see it), unambiguous (little room to dispute), clearly related to the change effort (won because of the change, not despite it) ✓
- c. Loud, fast, repeatable
- d. Authorized, documented, photographed
What's Collins's published flywheel concept?
- a. A type of organizational chart
- b. Change is like pushing a heavy flywheel — first turn takes enormous effort and produces little motion, by the hundredth turn the wheel moves on its own momentum; no single dramatic push, just disciplined consistent turns in the same direction ✓
- c. A motivational poster
- d. A budget management tool
What's Collins's published doom loop pattern?
- a. An aviation maneuver
- b. Organizations launch a direction, lose patience when the flywheel doesn't immediately spin, change direction, get tired of the new direction before it builds momentum, change again — each change resets the flywheel ✓
- c. An economic downturn
- d. A meeting that ran too long
What's the Heaths' published refinement to Kotter's short-term wins?
- a. Wins should be more frequent
- b. The easiest wins to produce are bright spots that already exist but aren't yet recognized — identify cases where the desired outcome is already happening and amplify them publicly ✓
- c. Wins should be larger
- d. Wins should be paid for
What's the published distinction between busyness and momentum?
- a. They're the same thing
- b. Busyness is activity; momentum is activity that compounds — busyness feels like progress but the change goal hasn't advanced, momentum looks slower but each unit of effort moves the change forward ✓
- c. Busyness is bad, momentum is good — pick momentum
- d. Busyness happens in offices, momentum in factories
What's Maxwell's published Law of the Big Mo?
- a. Momentum is the enemy of careful planning
- b. Momentum is a leader's best friend; leaders create it, riders profit from it, critics suffer from it — when momentum is present, problems get solved more easily; when absent, every small problem becomes a referendum ✓
- c. Big things take big effort
- d. Momentum is impossible to manufacture
What's Maxwell's published Law of Priorities?
- a. Always finish what you start
- b. Leaders understand that activity is not necessarily accomplishment — 20% of the work produces 80% of the result; identify which 20% and put it first ✓
- c. Priorities should be set by the senior person
- d. Treat all tasks equally
What's the published 80/20 priorities pass for change efforts?
- a. Do twenty things by week eighty
- b. List everything the coalition could do, identify the 20% that would produce 80% of the change, drop or defer the other 80% — change efforts fail more often from doing too many things partially than too few things well ✓
- c. Spend 80% of the budget by month 20
- d. Eighty meetings per twenty members
What's the published month-four reckoning, and what's the practical move?
- a. A quarterly financial review
- b. Month four is where most change efforts die — initial enthusiasm faded, J-curve dip visible, gain not yet materialized; plan a deliberate momentum push at month three and a visible win for month four to convert the dip into a turning point ✓
- c. Time to fire the coalition
- d. The legal deadline for declaring change